I sit in Chicago's O'Hare airport. It's not yet June, and if today is any indication, the air traffic control system, and the airways in general, are on the cusp of a summer of delays of unprecedented proportions.
The weather here -- it's 7:40 PM at the moment -- is fine (although there's some rain on the way). Earlier today, it rained. Not much, and not very hard, but on and off for a few hours. Yesterday it rained hard for about 30 minutes. Today those weather systems are East of Chicago in the form of a string of thunderstorms across Ohio and Kentucky. It is not raining in Philly.
Here's the result: Massive cancellations in Chicago, with gate hold and taxi delays averaging 3 hours 45 minutes and increasing. My 6:55 PM flight is scheduled for 10:50 PM, and candidly, it may not go at all.
So here we sit.
Why does this happen? How do mild storms create total havoc at O'Hare, Midway, Detroit, Cleveland, Philadelphia, Newark, LaGuardia ... even Teterboro? Because the ATC system is over-capacity, the planes are full, and the infrastructure archaic. There is no flex in the system. The system is designed around an average capacity last seen 20 years ago, which is a best case scenario -- or a fantasy -- today.
The best case scenario never happens, so the system is designed for continual failure. Somebody sneezes, a butterfly in Beijing flaps its wings, and we have delays affecting half the continental United States.
Lest you think things might get better inside the terminal, try this on for size: Today there are 70,000 fewer airline employees on the payroll than four years ago. This year the remaining employees will serve 100 million more passengers than four years ago.
70,000 fewer employees. 100 million more passengers. Voodoo economics indeed.
Honestly, though, the problem isn't voodoo economics, it's zombie economics. The fact is that the system has been too far and too long removed from the free market forces that regulate supply, demand, and quality. The federal government has kept a host of poor-performing airlines -- US Airways, Delta, Northwest for three -- on life support when the market was trying to put them out of business for good reason: They can't compete. Their fixed costs structures are too high. They're built on economic assumptions that passed into fantasy in 1985. They should not be here.
If the government isn't propping them up, unrealistic fare competition is. What's the only way US Airways can stay in business? By charging the vast majority of its passengers 300 bucks to fly to Las Vegas. Can it make a profit doing so? No. But it must do so to fill seats and create cash flow, so it does. It does so whilst cutting staff. The flights fill to capacity. The departure slots fill. The delays at security increase. The delays in the air increase. Bags get lost. Customers get dissatisfied. And US Airways still loses money on the flight. Repeat the scenario for seven other airlines and you can begin to see the problem. But because the industry is repeatedly propped up by external agents, the weak performers stick around.
There are only three airlines worth flying today: Southwest, JetBlue, and Midwest Express. All cheap, all fun, all generally reliable, all with great service, all profitable. Why are there only three? Because the old carriers they rightly should have replaced are still propped up on regulatory life support. Zombie economics.
The fact is that you can have it cheap, reliable, and with a smile -- but only two out of three, and often, only one, under the economics of most major carriers. The system has opted for cheap. If you want to return to the days of reliable, friendly service, all those families traveling this Memorial Day weekend are going to have to get used to paying $1,200 a seat to go see Grandma -- just like us business travelers. Do that and you'll see a return to balance in the system very quickly.
Fun fact example of a system beyond capacity: The gate agent just came on the PA and forecasted that there isn't an available seat from Chicago to Philly for two days. Miss tonight's flight, and you're here until Saturday.
It's going to be a hell of a summer. My advice: Learn to explore your own home town.