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Obama's VP

FOLKS WHO SPEND TIME with me know I follow politics much like I follow the Phillies: With a combination of daily interest, fondness, and loathing. A favorite pastime of mine is making political predictions far in advance and seeing what the future proves and disproves (past proven predictions: A Kerry / Edwards ticket, predicted just after the 2004 NH primary, Obama winning the Dem. nominiation, predicted in December '07; a past disproven prediction: Gore as the 2008 Dem. nominee).

As a result I'm sometimes asked (or goaded) for predictions, and today I was asked / goaded into taking a position on Obama's VP selection. Here is the text of my email reply:

In terms of VP, a lot of people are saying Jim Webb, but I think a two-Senator ticket hurts him. Same issue for Biden. Others are saying Wes Clark. Would be a good move for Wes (even though he's physically grafted to the side of the Clintons), as he still wants to be President one day, but having a guy who has never held elected office on the ticket hurts Obama.

I think it has to be a Governor or a former VP. There are no former VPs who would help the ticket save Al Gore, and he's not going there again. So who are the Dem Governors that would help?

- Jennifer Granholm, Michigan (and a woman to boot)
- Bill Richardson (another prediction from the past)
- Ted Strickland, Ohio
- Ed Rendell, PA (too close to the Clintons, and I think he has no desire)

None of those folks. Expect Mark Warner, former Governor of VA and 2008 Senate aspirant. Centrist, popular, a southerner, and a history of creating useful, effective government in Virginia.

The dark horse, holy *&$%, can't believe he did that and he'll absolutely win the whole thing for the record books candidate: Colin Powell. It'll never happen, but I wish it would …

What Sabato has to say about it:  Jim Webb. He's wrong on this one. http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/article.php?id=GMP2008050801

Oh, and McCain is going to pick Romney. My prediction last year was Romney / McCain for the Republicans; I think I'll end up with the right names but the wrong order ...

The Triple Whammy

LARRY SABATO:

Three indicators of the national political climate have accurately predicted the outcomes of presidential elections since the end of World War II: the incumbent president's approval rating at mid-year, the growth rate of the economy during the second quarter of the election year, and the length of time the president's party has held the White House ...

* snip *

In theory, the Electoral Barometer can range from -100 or lower to +100 or higher with a reading of zero indicating a neutral political climate. In practice, Electoral Barometer readings for the fifteen presidential elections since the end of World War II have ranged from -66 in 1980 to +82 in 1964. A positive Electoral Barometer reading generally predicts victory for the incumbent party while a negative reading generally predicts defeat.

I'll save you the suspense of following the link (although the full article is well worth reading): The current Electoral Barometer reading is -63.

The Electoral Barometer has predicted the winner of the popular vote in 14 of the 15 presidential elections since World War II ... An Electoral Barometer reading of -63 would predict a decisive defeat for the Republican presidential candidate. The only election since World War II with a score in this range was 1980. In that election Jimmy Carter suffered the worst defeat for an incumbent president since Herbert Hoover in 1932 ... If John McCain manages to overcome the triple whammy of an unpopular president, a weak economy, and a second term election, it will be an upset of unprecedented magnitude.

TradeSports currently has McCain futures trading at 36. I'll be shorting them.

FOR THOSE WHO CAN'T WAIT FOR 2008, Sabato's latest Crystal Ball is up.

FOR THOSE who can't wait for 2008: Sabato's latest Crystal Ball is up.

SPEAKING OF FRANK LUNTZ, if you've wondered what behind-the-scenes political counsel looks like, read this Luntz memo to conservatives on the topic of the environment (title, "The Environment: A Cleaner, Safer, Healthier America"). Position papers such as these, from the right and left, ultimately drive much of the framing and political discourse you hear, read, and see each day.

LARRY SABATO'S latest Crystal Ball is up. This edition includes an interesting comparison of mid-term election "waves" going back to Truman, as well as his trends for every House and Senate race in the country.

LARRY SABATO'S LATEST Crystal Ball is up. Get the email subscription to stay current.