Getting out of Philadelphia International two nights ago was an absolute nightmare. My flight was 3.5 hours late getting out, and we were lucky that a "slot" in the ATC system opened for us to take at all.
PHL is notoriously unreliable -- I'll have to fact-check, but I recall hearing it's the least reliable major airport in the country for on-time departures / arrivals and baggage. So unreliable, in fact, that I've become sufficiently frustrated as a frequent traveler that last night I seriously considered launching a "PHL Sucks" blog just to record the disruption PHL's operations wreck upon everyday travelers.
I've always felt the primary factors were (1) being squashed between the arrival / departure routes for New York and Washington, and (2) only having two runways capable of serving large jets (one for arrivals and one for departures). In light of this, I've long felt it was irresponsible of the airport to follow it's current course of adding more gates (and as a result, more arrivals and departures). I mean, at some point here, the system is going to have to self-correct, and my concern has long been that it will correct because of a safety issue.
Sitting on the plane Wednesday night, though, I chatted with a pilot who was flying home to Dallas, and he gave me another, more immediate reason for the decreasing reliability at PHL: regional jets. US Airways, like many airlines, has moved aggressively to small RJs that carry some 30-70 people for many of its routes (including, unfortunately, long routes like Philly to Minneapolis and Atlanta).
Here's the consequence of that move (other than less reliable regional airline service and small, cramped interiors): It takes three RJs to transport the same number of passengers as one 737. More RJs means more departures. More departures means an ATC departure and arrival schedule that gets more cramped, and less safe, more quickly. And that means delays for the smallest possible interruption in the system.
To me, it's another indication of real fissures in the system: US Airways has to move to RJs (and their lower operating costs per passenger) just to stay in the air. In doing so, they also decrease the passengers per departure slot from PHL, causing a downstream consequence in the system that creates many negative consequences for everyone going in and out of PHL, and as a result, very often people trying to travel anywhere in the North East.
Systems theory is pretty clear about two things:
- Systems tend to calibrate to the lowest standard in the system (when a highway gets jammed at rush hour, we all go as slow as the slowest car, not as fast as the fastest).
- Systems hate to be out of balance, and they'll find a way to return to equilibrium, very often with system perturbations that bring with them negative, disruptive consequences.
The system at PHL, and the ATC and air travel systems in general, are increasingly out of balance. As much as I hate to type it, I dread seeing what calibration and perturbation might look like in the airline industry. Frankly, if it only involves a huge shakeout of poor performers with a few strong players left standing, we'll be lucky.
(And follow that Tom Barnett link: if you're not reading him, you should be.)