Obama's VP

FOLKS WHO SPEND TIME with me know I follow politics much like I follow the Phillies: With a combination of daily interest, fondness, and loathing. A favorite pastime of mine is making political predictions far in advance and seeing what the future proves and disproves (past proven predictions: A Kerry / Edwards ticket, predicted just after the 2004 NH primary, Obama winning the Dem. nominiation, predicted in December '07; a past disproven prediction: Gore as the 2008 Dem. nominee).

As a result I'm sometimes asked (or goaded) for predictions, and today I was asked / goaded into taking a position on Obama's VP selection. Here is the text of my email reply:

In terms of VP, a lot of people are saying Jim Webb, but I think a two-Senator ticket hurts him. Same issue for Biden. Others are saying Wes Clark. Would be a good move for Wes (even though he's physically grafted to the side of the Clintons), as he still wants to be President one day, but having a guy who has never held elected office on the ticket hurts Obama.

I think it has to be a Governor or a former VP. There are no former VPs who would help the ticket save Al Gore, and he's not going there again. So who are the Dem Governors that would help?

- Jennifer Granholm, Michigan (and a woman to boot)
- Bill Richardson (another prediction from the past)
- Ted Strickland, Ohio
- Ed Rendell, PA (too close to the Clintons, and I think he has no desire)

None of those folks. Expect Mark Warner, former Governor of VA and 2008 Senate aspirant. Centrist, popular, a southerner, and a history of creating useful, effective government in Virginia.

The dark horse, holy *&$%, can't believe he did that and he'll absolutely win the whole thing for the record books candidate: Colin Powell. It'll never happen, but I wish it would …

What Sabato has to say about it:  Jim Webb. He's wrong on this one. http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/article.php?id=GMP2008050801

Oh, and McCain is going to pick Romney. My prediction last year was Romney / McCain for the Republicans; I think I'll end up with the right names but the wrong order ...

Comments

[Sixel]

Haven't been here in a while. This Obama stuff is pretty exciting. I'd go anyone that can help in PA, OH, VA or FL. There aren't many states even in play, unless race is an even bigger issue than I think (and enough women really are mad, but I think that effect is small long term).

[Sixel]

Alan, I almost forgot. E-mail me. We'll be in Philly right before the 4th of July...

[Ted]

As Granholm was born in Canada, it may be a tough sell as she would be constitutionally barred from holding the office, thus probably a poor veep nominee. Further, Michigan's economy will be used against her, despite the fact that much of the reason is due to the greed of the Big 3.