Seat 1A

Personal weblog of Alan L. Nelson
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About This Site

  • I'm Alan Nelson. By trade I'm a Partner at CRA; for an avocational bio go here, for a vocational one go here. This site is my personal weblog, is a hobby, and is not affiliated with CRA or its clients.

    It's updated frequently, travel permitting. The most recent entries are at the top of the page, and older content is organized by category and date in the archives.

    If you'd like to contact me I'd welcome the note; you may do so at alan.l.nelson [at] gmail [dot] com. Finally, my Facebook page is here.

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IS URBAN VIOLENCE VIRAL? It might be according to experts cited in this New York Times magazine article. The essence:

CeaseFire’s founder, Gary Slutkin, is an epidemiologist and a physician who for 10 years battled infectious diseases in Africa. He says that violence directly mimics infections like tuberculosis and AIDS, and so, he suggests, the treatment ought to mimic the regimen applied to these diseases: go after the most infected, and stop the infection at its source. “For violence, we’re trying to interrupt the next event, the next transmission, the next violent activity,” Slutkin told me recently. “And the violent activity predicts the next violent activity like H.I.V. predicts the next H.I.V. and TB predicts the next TB.” Slutkin wants to shift how we think about violence from a moral issue (good and bad people) to a public health one (healthful and unhealthful behavior).
It seems plausible, and interestingly, very similar to our approach to stakeholder management at the office--except in that case, we're trying to foster the spread of behavior rather than hinder it.

Either way, the central issue is network effects, and in particular, the role of hyper-connected actors within the network. Think of it this way: If someone catches the cold, but only interacts with a few other people, the rate of transmission is likely to be low. If on the other hand the ill person shakes 100 hands a day, well, a lot of people are probably going to get sick. Substitute the willingness to enact violence, or support for your company's SAP implementation, for the common cold, and it's clear that not everyone in the network is equal in the effects they exert on the whole. It's all about dealing with the critical few.

For the seminal academic piece read Rogers; for the seminal popular piece read Gladwell (the book or the original article).

BEHOLD! A DUSTY ARTIFACT from the land before time! (via Kottke)

"DEHS HUNDREDS A PEOPLE frozen ever'whe ... id's wild!"

ONE OF THE GREAT but for most people unknown pieces of American Presidential rhetoric is Ike's "Farewell Address." It seems an awfully opportune time to revisit it, and you can read and listen to the text here (and yes, that's where the term "military-industrial complex" was coined).

SOME NEW PHOTOS at TAGD, including this shot of M42 / Orion Nebula from a week ago (which has a slight camera bump, but is a starting point as I learn to shoot deep sky objects).

 

28meals600_3 "EAT FOOD. NOT TOO MUCH. MOSTLY PLANTS." Folks who have seen me speak know that I often invoke these lines, written by Micheal Pollan, as an example of a "sticky message": A message that quickly summarizes a complex topic in a memorable way. I first read that message in the opening to Pollan's NY Times Magazine article about food, and he's recently posted a manifesto about the same topic at ChangeThis. Very worth reading, and you may do so here.

Also, I've recently finished Pollan's The Omnivore's Dillema. Also very much worth reading, and if you do, you will likely make lasting changes in your eating and purchasing habits.

Finally, Pollan has a site on the Web here.

THE REASON I'm getting up in the morning:

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THIS YEAR, you can put a Hillbilly in the Whitehouse!

WITNESS ENTREPRENEURIAL GENIUS, and a bit of history, too.

MELT YOUR HEART.

MORE PROOF THAT GOD LOVES US AND WANTS TO SEE US HAPPY.

A NICE SUMMARY of a the history of the Universe. Early this year I had the chance to hear some leading astrophysicists and cosmologists describe the Universe's first moments, and their description was very much the same. After telling the story, a person in the audience noted, "You mean to tell me that in the first moments of the Universe everything was dark, then there was light, then there was matter ... that sounds an awful lot like Genesis." The reply: "That's not lost on us." 

IF YOU HADN'T NOTICED, Totalitarianism is back in a big, big, way. Of course, what framing moral authority is there in the world to oppose it?

YOUNG MASTER JAMES decided to wake up his ol' dad a bit early this morning, which is a unfortunate as ol' dad was up past midnight running around killing folks on Xbox Live like the immature punk he truly is.  (Changed my gamertag to "Steve P Jobs." How great is that?) Turns out that after my bringing him (James, not Steve Jobs) downstairs to my office and making my coffee, he's been content to go back to sleep.

So it goes.

I thought I'd kill some time by posting some of the items sitting in my del.icio.us "post" tag. Thusly the list begins:

Enjoy!

SINCE NOVEMBER 6TH we've declined 48 catalogs at catalogchoice.org. For those scoring at home, that's more than two each day. How many unwanted reams of paper are you getting in a month?

* Update on the update: Just got the mail; make that 53 catalogs declined. And one wasn't yet listed.

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A READER FORWARDED this post at TEDBlog about new views of Saturn courtesy Cassini-Huygens. See the full set of images here. (Thanks, Sharon!) Click this shot for a full-sized view of this spectacular image of rings and moons ...

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While on the topic, I suppose I once knew that TED had a blog, but had since forgotten, and now thanks to Sharon am once again reminded. Added to my RSS reader (Google Reader).

IT'S CALLED THE HOLY WAR, which might seem a bit pretentious, but for those who grew up there, it's the perfect moniker. Of all the rivalries I've felt or watched, there's nothing quite like it; in fact, the lede from the Wikipedia article on the topic captures the state of things quite well:

Few rivalries in collegiate athletics can match the passion and intensity of the rivalry between the University of Utah and Brigham Young University ("BYU"). Through the years, the enmity between these two schools has become so deep that fans of either side are rarely willing to concede even the slightest point, as doing so would be a detriment to their own cause. To the fans and players involved, the debate has evolved into a zero-sum game: any sort of defeat sustained by one school is claimed to be a victory for the other.

True fact, that: My two favorite teams are Utah and whoever plays BYU.

Some of this intensity comes from the natural competition of near-by schools. Some of it comes from public (Utah) v. private (BYU) school tension. Some of it comes from history: For decades Utah dominated the series, then when I was a kid, The Zoo regularly hammered the hapless Utes by margins of forty and fifty points, taking the Utes losing streak to nine years at one point (I remember wondering in high school, "Will I ever see Utah beat BYU?").  But most of it comes from cultural rivalry, with BYU being the "Mormon School" and Utah being the "Non-Mormon School" in a state in which 75% of folks are Mormon and root for the former and the remainder are not and root for the latter.

It all combines for a gridiron matchup of My Way v. Your Way for both schools, and for the Ute fans (especially the non-Mormon Ute fans who live among the Latter Day Saints) it's an annual David v. Goliath, but with statistics and instant replay.

Of course, we all know David was the good guy.

Go Utes! Beat the Zoo!

Neng02 EVERY YEAR SINCE 1961, on the day before Thanksgiving the Wall Street Journal has published two pieces on its opinion page: The Desolate Wilderness, And The Fair Land. Since 1995 or so it's been a tradition of mine to read both, and take them as cause for reflection on our grand harvest and the courage that forging into uncharted lands, be they as grand as a new continent or as personal as a new career, requires.

Sadly, and as you know if you tried to follow the links above, both articles are in the subscription-required portion of the Journal. And so, in keeping with the second part of my tradition, I publish them here for you. I've been a loyal customer of the Journal for many years; I hope that in the spirit of giving thanks they won't mind.

Happy Thanksgiving.

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The Desolate Wilderness

Here beginneth the chronicle of those memorable circumstances of the year 1620, as recorded by Nathaniel Morton, keeper of the records of Plymouth Colony, based on the account of William Bradford, sometime governor thereof:

So they left that goodly and pleasant city of Leyden, which had been their resting-place for above eleven years, but they knew that they were pilgrims and strangers here below, and looked not much on these things, but lifted up their eyes to Heaven, their dearest country, where God hath prepared for them a city (Heb. XI, 16), and therein quieted their spirits.

When they came to Delfs-Haven they found the ship and all things ready, and such of their friends as could not come with them followed after them, and sundry came from Amsterdam to see them shipt, and to take their leaves of them. One night was spent with little sleep with the most, but with friendly entertainment and Christian discourse, and other real expressions of true Christian love.

The next day they went on board, and their friends with them, where truly doleful was the sight of that sad and mournful parting, to hear what sighs and sobs and prayers did sound amongst them; what tears did gush from every eye, and pithy speeches pierced each other's heart, that sundry of the Dutch strangers that stood on the Key as spectators could not refrain from tears. But the tide (which stays for no man) calling them away, that were thus loath to depart, their Reverend Pastor, falling down on his knees, and they all with him, with watery cheeks commended them with the most fervent prayers unto the Lord and His blessing; and then with mutual embraces and many tears they took their leaves one of another, which proved to be the last leave to many of them.

Being now passed the vast ocean, and a sea of troubles before them in expectations, they had now no friends to welcome them, no inns to entertain or refresh them, no houses, or much less towns, to repair unto to seek for succour; and for the season it was winter, and they that know the winters of the country know them to be sharp and violent, subject to cruel and fierce storms, dangerous to travel to known places, much more to search unknown coasts.

Besides, what could they see but a hideous and desolate wilderness, full of wilde beasts and wilde men? and what multitudes of them there were, they then knew not: for which way soever they turned their eyes (save upward to Heaven) they could have but little solace or content in respect of any outward object; for summer being ended, all things stand in appearance with a weatherbeaten face, and the whole country, full of woods and thickets, represented a wild and savage hew.

If they looked behind them, there was a mighty ocean which they had passed, and was now as a main bar or gulph to separate them from all the civil parts of the world.


And the Fair Land

Any one whose labors take him into the far reaches of the country, as ours lately have done, is bound to mark how the years have made the land grow fruitful.

This is indeed a big country, a rich country, in a way no array of figures can measure and so in a way past belief of those who have not seen it. Even those who journey through its Northeastern complex, into the Southern lands, across the central plains and to its Western slopes can only glimpse a measure of the bounty of America.

And a traveler cannot but be struck on his journey by the thought that this country, one day, can be even greater. America, though many know it not, is one of the great underdeveloped countries of the world; what it reaches for exceeds by far what it has grasped.

So the visitor returns thankful for much of what he has seen, and, in spite of everything, an optimist about what his country might be. Yet the visitor, if he is to make an honest report, must also note the air of unease that hangs everywhere.

For the traveler, as travelers have been always, is as much questioned as questioning. And for all the abundance he sees, he finds the questions put to him ask where men may repair for succor from the troubles that beset them.

His countrymen cannot forget the savage face of war. Too often they have been asked to fight in strange and distant places, for no clear purpose they could see and for no accomplishment they can measure. Their spirits are not quieted by the thought that the good and pleasant bounty that surrounds them can be destroyed in an instant by a single bomb. Yet they find no escape, for their survival and comfort now depend on unpredictable strangers in far-off corners of the globe.

How can they turn from melancholy when at home they see young arrayed against old, black against white, neighbor against neighbor, so that they stand in peril of social discord. Or not despair when they see that the cities and countryside are in need of repair, yet find themselves threatened by scarcities of the resources that sustain their way of life. Or when, in the face of these challenges, they turn for leadership to men in high places -- only to find those men as frail as any others.

So sometimes the traveler is asked whence will come their succor. What is to preserve their abundance, or even their civility? How can they pass on to their children a nation as strong and free as the one they inherited from their forefathers? How is their country to endure these cruel storms that beset it from without and from within?

Of course the stranger cannot quiet their spirits. For it is true that everywhere men turn their eyes today much of the world has a truly wild and savage hue. No man, if he be truthful, can say that the specter of war is banished. Nor can he say that when men or communities are put upon their own resources they are sure of solace; nor be sure that men of diverse kinds and diverse views can live peaceably together in a time of troubles.

But we can all remind ourselves that the richness of this country was not born in the resources of the earth, though they be plentiful, but in the men that took its measure. For that reminder is everywhere -- in the cities, towns, farms, roads, factories, homes, hospitals, schools that spread everywhere over that wilderness.

We can remind ourselves that for all our social discord we yet remain the longest enduring society of free men governing themselves without benefit of kings or dictators. Being so, we are the marvel and the mystery of the world, for that enduring liberty is no less a blessing than the abundance of the earth.

And we might remind ourselves also, that if those men setting out from Delftshaven had been daunted by the troubles they saw around them, then we could not this autumn be thankful for a fair land.

I'VE POSTED some new photos, these taken in New York City. The Koenig Sculpture was especially impressive in person. Having walked by it often in its prior location, the scarring of the piece produces a visceral reaction.

A WONDERFUL COLLECTION of infographics that explain baseball pitches. Via Kottke.

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I'VE BEEN REDESIGNING my home page as a way of exploring the new iWeb and the web publishing features of Aperture (I'm hoping to use this design to put more photos online). The first revision is web-ready, and you may find it here. Quick review: I really like the new iWeb, much more so than the prior version, and Aperture is incredible.

Next task: Modify the top-level tabs of Seat 1A to reflect the new navigation structure ...

397370 HOW DID I LAST SO LONG? Led Zeppelin is finally available on iTunes, and the Nelson household is now the proud owner of the complete works (a bargain at the price) -- an incredible set of tunes for the library. An 18:36-minute live version of Dazed and Confused, anyone?

LAST MONTH I asked noted neuro-scientist Dr. Mike Merzenich to speak at a conference I organize for work. He's a fascinating guy, and his research into brain plasticity is incredible stuff. He also has a blog, where he's started posting a top ten list of misconceptions, by scientists and the public, about the neurological bases of memory/cognitive losses in aging. Check it out. (And misconception #1? Drugs won't help. You have to learn your way out of it.)

I'VE POSTED PHOTOS (including the one below) and viewing notes of Comet 17P/Holmes over at TAGD. If you've not stepped out to look at the comet, you should -- especially if you have some binoculars or a telescope handy. More notes on how to do so in the post.

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HERE'S GOOD NEWS: Malcolm Gladwell is back in the New Yorker, and at his blog as well. He's been working on a new book, which is nearly finished; hence the absence.

JJ: Care to offer any color commentary?

CATALOGCHOICE.ORG: Opt out of the catalogs that arrive in your mailbox and save more than a few trees. We enrolled today; it's free, easy, and takes all of three minutes. I look forward to rejecting physical spam with each arrival of our mailman ... (found the site via this piece in the NYT, a use of paper which we're happy to receive).

150pxrangers 150pxfc_barcelona_crestFOR THOSE NEAR A TV OR TIVO today at 2:30 EST, FCBarcelona (Spain; my favorite club and the greatest lineup in the world) plays the pride of Scotland, Rangers F.C. , in UEFA Champions League action. Imagine if Boston were a country and New York were a country, and the Red Sox and Yankees, as great teams from each place, were to play in a tournament to determine the best team in the United States.

Ok, they both act like countries, and I think I just described the World Series (rather than the ALCS), but you get the point: The Champions League is an annual, several-month-long tournament to determine the best local football / soccer team in Europe. Because of it, teams that never play each other, like Barca and Rangers, do get play each other. It's like inter-league play in baseball, but for real stakes, as the champion of Europe can likely claim to be the best soccer team in the world. Should Rangers win today, expect the party in Scotland to be so grand that the nation may just break away from England and slip into the North Sea.

It's worth watching just to see Barca. It's lineup is beyond stellar. In strikers alone the team has Henry (French), Messi (Argintinian and my favorite player), Eto'o (Camaroonian), and Ronaldinho (Brazilian, and the best player in the world by most standards). Only three of these guy can play at a time, and that list doesn't even include Giovanni Dos Santos, the Mexican teen sitting in the depth chart who may soon be the world's best player. It's remarkable soccer, and will be unlike any you've ever seen if your exposure has been Major League Soccer.

VERY WORTH SEEING: Butterflies and Hurricanes. It's about a friend and supported by a brother, and the least I can do is help build awareness. Besides, it's quite good. You may need to lobby to see it, or I'm happy to send you my copy ...

I HAVE A NEW HOBBY, and I'm blogging about it here.

Jamesbath

IN A SIMILAR VEIN, a collection of Stephen Hawking's public lectures and physics colloquiums. This is the Interweb Series of Tubes at its best.

A BURST OF RADIO WAVES so powerful it produced as much energy in five milleseconds as our sun produces in a month. It's astonishing to me such things can exist, that they might travel three billion years before reaching our instruments, and that they may originate in something as exotic as an evaporating black hole. (I didn't even know black holes could evaporate, did you? Steven Hawking thinks so.)

ONE PAPER'S LIST of the great interviews of the 20th century (via Kottke). Brando: "The more thenthitive your are, the more thertain you are to be brutalithed ..."

Phillies1 HERE WE GO. AGAIN.

For the third consecutive year, in the final week of baseball's 162-game schedule fans of the Philadelphia Phillies find their team within striking distance of the playoffs. In this case, the Phils are one game back of the Mets with four to play. To borrow the cliche, they control their destiny.

Never a good thing with the Phils.

How many times this year, we wonder, did the Phils waste a game? The game where third-base coaching errors cost us three runs on the base paths? The game where the Nationals hit four consecutive blooper flies and overcame a six-run lead in the 8th?

Fact is, in a season that's 162 games and 183 days, every team loses a number of games it should not. The odds just work out that way. The difference with the Phillies is that we've come to expect those fluke losses. We look for them, anticipate them like the first robin or the first turning of the leaves. Except that instead of being harbingers of a change of season, they're symbols of our team's doom.

Error "That's the one," you'll hear us say, walking to our cars after the Phls drop a head-shaker (for texture, assume in this case it's because Charlie Manuel once again displayed just one batter too much faith in a pitcher undeserving, who then walked in the tying run and gave up the game winner on a bunt to the mound which said pitcher then threw wildly to first).

"That's the game. When we miss the playoffs by one friggin' game this year, this is the game."

One wonders, if one misses the playoffs in consecutive years by what resolves to a small set of individual mistakes in individual games, if perhaps management my try to, say, overcome this gap by crushing the vagaries of fate at baseball's margins with some overwhelming positive force. Good pitching, say. Or a bullpen.

One wonders, but one then remembers that this is the Philadelphia Phillies one is wondering about. A team owned and managed by committee. A team with over 10,000 losses. A team with one world championship in 124 years of trying.

We minted unfulfilled expectations in this town. One game back with four to play? Perfect. We're right where we like to be -- on the cusp of greatness, ready to settle back into the comfortable armchair of could-have-beens.

Me, I've been here before. I refuse to believe.

(Except, of course, that I do. I love these guys. GO PHILS!)

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WHERE did the last five minutes go?

OH MY GOODNESS THIS is cool.

A FRIEND SENDS THIS. Of course, we're both right ...

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Legos TODAY I BEGIN an eight week break from the office. I started at CRA in June of 1992, and with things being 15 years on I had been thinking of taking some time off for a while. James' birth provided the perfect opportunity, so beginning today I'm taking 56 days away.

I love my work, but it's going to be great.

With the flow of information, the scheduling, and the unpredictability of travel that are part of advising big companies, I can only describe the feeling I have this morning as like siting down to a big, blank piece of construction paper with a box of crayons. Or the feeling I'd get as a kid when I'd sit down on the family room floor and spread out my big denim bag of Legos. What are the possibilities? What should we do next? What should we do today?

Ears

It's going to be great.

First up is a set of projects to take on before the weather turns too cold:

  • Paint the garage door
  • Fix the woodpecker holes
  • Fix the front step
  • Paint the office
  • Finish organizing the basement work and storage area
  • Organize the garage
  • Organize and back up our digital photos and electronic media

Then there's the reading list (which I'll be happy to change in an instant):

And finally, some things to pass the time:

  • Flyfish mornings on Valley Creek
  • Learn how to tie the fly patterns I fishRenegade_2
  • Play some golf
  • Spend a few days (or a week) at Kate's parent's place in the Pocono's (and flyfish there, too)
  • Complete the full (but simulated) flight instruction course on FSX (getting the real private pilot's license didn't seem to jive with my newly-flexed paternal instincts)
  • Make a trip to Utah (and flyfish there, too)
  • Bond with my son

I'll probably find the time to blog, more, too. So watch this space. Until then ...

Gone_fishin

WHEN INTERNAL COMMUNICATION counsel goes horribly, terribly wrong. "Leading us all to / higher staaaandards"

THE NEW YORK TIMES has eliminated its TimesSelect program, its subscription-based service that provided full access to the Times' content (and in particular, much of its meatier op/ed and analysis reporting). This means the full Times is available, each day, to everyone online, free.

We subscribe to the print edition and had enjoyed TS access as part of our subscription. From a business perspective it's an interesting decision. The WSJ, I think, has succeeded online precisely because they charge for full access, honoring the adage that in the experience economy you are what you charge (the thinking being that charging "admission" for your content forces you to ensure your content is worth the fee). Perhaps this means the times isn't as differentiated as they had suspected (or hoped? ) ...

Regardless, go and enjoy your fresh, free Thomas Fredeman ...